Sunday, February 05, 2006

IAEA Board Passed Resolution on Iran.

The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution requesting the IAEA Director General to report to the UN Security Council all IAEA reports and resolutions, as adopted, relating to the implementation of safeguards in Iran.

The resolution does not in any way claim that Iran is actually building a bomb as many people would think. Just that the world wishes for more translucency from the Iranians on the matter. (read the full resolution for yourself here pdf file.)

In fact the exact wording of the resolution describes a "lack of confidence" in Iran's intentions. It does seem a rather strange charge to put before the UN security council for it is hard to see how a "lack of confidence" can be classified as a crime.

George Bush has reacted with pleasure to the announcement by the IAEA but he echoed the sentiments of his recent State of the Union address to Congress, saying the IAEA vote would not affect Iran's right to civilian nuclear power. "Iran's true interests lie in working with the international community to enjoy the benefits of peaceful nuclear energy," he said.

The Iranians have reacted strongly as expected by saying it will no longer allow snap inspections of its nuclear sites. However, an Iranian diplomat said that the president could only make such an order after a letter expressing Iran's intention had been received by the International Atomic Energy Agency at its headquarters in Vienna. Such a letter was due to be delivered late last night.

Javad Vaidi, head of the Iranian delegation to the IAEA, said the "resolution is politically motivated since it is not based on any legal or technical grounds" and announced Teheran's defiant response.

It appears from wording of the IAEA resolution that Iran has not in fact broken any rules of NPT and there is still absolutely no evidence that Iran is engaging in any desire to create a nuclear weapon. The Iranians have now reacted by refusing to continue to implement the voluntary additional protocol which as stated is voluntary.

The resolution was backed by 27 countries on the 35-member board, including Russia and China. Five abstained and the only dissenting voices were Syria, Cuba and Venezuela.

Military options against Iran by the UN security council seem to be almost non existent and sanctions would hurt the west as much as Iran by possibly pushing the price of oil above 100 dollars a barrel not to mention the potential damage to any chance of a peaceful conclusion to the charade in Iraq. So it seems the effort is more symbolic than productive. Sanctions will not be implemented as China will not support any move towards sanctions and the Chinese having a veto over any resolution will make the whole event nothing more than a television spectacle that has the potential to create more problems for the West and push the Iranians further into isolation than they already are.

Some basic questions and answers about the IAEA ruling and the current stand off between Iran and the West can be found here


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Seems to me that the US will attack Iran in some fashion. The military is already over there and Iran was originally listed as one of the three axis of evil. The stage is now set.

Canadian Observer

February 05, 2006 5:49 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes with Iraq and Afghanistan on either side of Iran swarming with US troops, its almost too easy!

February 06, 2006 2:37 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi, _H_,

It's hard to tell from the blog, so would you please just tell us which you would prefer of the following:

(a) Iran eventually builds itself atomic bombs; or
(b) Iran never gets its hands on atomic bombs

I'm a big (b) person myself. You? Please don't say you are indifferent between those two choices.

February 06, 2006 5:50 am  
Blogger _H_ said...

greetings Anonymous . I am clearly a big (b) person to....

But I answer that question having read every single IAEA report and not seeing a single Piece of evidence that they are actually attempting to make a bomb at all. I am sure you have read the resolution (above link in article) and there is no mention what so ever that Iran 'IS' building a bomb in it. so the question is purely hypothetical for nobody at all knows if they are even trying too , for the sake of your question I will assume that they are trying too but in the real world I would not nor could not make such a claim for I do not work for the IAEA and have not personally inspected the country.

I feel though that the only realistic way to achieve the end result that we both seem to want is to remove all Nuclear weapons from the region. Israel has over 200 warheads and the others will not allow themselves to be without an adequate defence against them .

So my solution is to show a fair hand by insisting that Iran stops working towards a higher level of enrichment than required for peaceful nuclear energy. That restrictions are placed upon the level and amount of centrifuges imported and more importantly to let the IAEA do its job.

1400 days of random (go anywhere ,see anything) inspections have failed to show us anything that says Iran is building a bomb. and we have only reached this point due to nation based pressure upon the IAEA to put Iran forward to the security council. The IAEA certainly would not be doing so if it wasn't for the bullying of nation states that have shown their track record for accuracy in their previous perceived weapons of mass destruction in Iraq when Hans blix and co clearly said that there was nothing to see.

I do accept Iran is clearly enriching uranium at a higher grade than is necessary for peaceful purposes . But at the same time they are nowhere near being able to create weapons grade uranium. In fact I am closer to being the next American president than Iran is to having the bomb. (and I am British)

Iran's new hard water treatment facility is due to come online in 2012 and there is no possibility of them making any bomb until then at least. They need thousands of centrifuges and even though the right wing press has speculated that they have them the real experts (the IAEA) have not seen any possibility of this being true. They are currently enriching at around 7% and until they build new reactors they are not going to reach the 90(odd) % required to make weapons grade material and we are nowhere near them being able to do so.

I like everyone else ,I find the rhetoric coming out of Iran disgusting but I see it as genuine rhetoric . Iran does not start wars with anyone even when it has had the chance to attack Israel directly it never has. By using such a weapon against Israel they would be killing thousands of Palestinians whom are one of the key reasons for the anger with Israel (not to mention the fact that Israel/ US and UK would then wipe Iran off the map. The Rhetoric is awful but the reality is quite sobering.

With such rhetoric there is a certain irony in how seriously people take Iran when it says that Israel should be pushed into the sea etc but when they talk about how no decent civilized society would want nuclear weapons and that Iran neither wants , desires or needs such weapons people fail to take these very same people for their word.

I find it funny the words that are noticed by the world and the ones that are not. This excerpt is from the recent speech by the Iranian president and was not barely touched by the worlds media. Now i am NOT saying every word is true. But if you fail to notice the content and intent of such a speech then a person would not be making conclusions based on fact but on politics and media speculation. this is what they said...

A nation which has culture, logic and civilization does not need nuclear weapons. The countries which seek nuclear weapons are those which want to solve all problems by the use of force. Our nation does not need such weapons.

They ask us why we have started [nuclear] research. Our reply is that there is no limitation to research. There are no limits imposed on research in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty nor in the Additional Protocol. Nor have we made any such commitment say openly that they are opposed to this research. By what right do you make such a statement? Is this not a fundamentalist medieval perspective? We believe that, unfortunately, despite their technological and scientific development, in certain parts of the world, several Western countries still have an ideological and intellectual perspective which belong to the medieval age.

Today, the language of hegemony, of force, of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons is no longer applicable. These things are no longer effective in international dealings. Today, nations have awakened, and they will determine their own future.

We have adhered to international laws and continue to do so. Over 1,400 days of inspection have been carried out at our facilities - that is unprecedented.

We have put forward a proposal calling for the UN to set up a disarmament committee. But some countries hold a stick over our head during the negotiations, threatening to refer our case to the UN Security Council unless we bend to their will. Why do they tarnish the integrity of international institutions?

Why do they force the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] to get involve with politics?

Our path is very clear. We shall continue with our activities within the regulations of the IAEA and the NPT. According to international law,

Iran has the right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. We are acting in the framework of the IAEA's regulations. Today, we are carrying out research. I should also say that our people will not accept that others should impose on us whatever they want. Our nation has a definite right to peaceful nuclear technology and will achieve it.

We are the only nation that has invited all others to come and join us. If you say that you do not trust us, you can come and become our partner. We are ready to become your partner in your [nuclear] technology. We can each supervise the others activities. We can watch that you do not deviate towards nuclear weapons, and you can also become our partners and monitor our activities directly.How do you justify this logic of having a full arsenal of nuclear weapons, but when it comes to nations such as ours, you do not even allow research? This logic cannot rule the world today.

Even if the Security Council gets involved in this subject, it will not help solve the equation. We do not want to move in this direction. But those who insist on undermining our rights should know that this will not happen.

so why not take them up on it ? why not join them ? unless someone doesn't want Iran to have its lawful right to nuclear energy then of course such a thought would too be disgusting and I would want no part of those that wish for a planet where countries are forced to not gain technology or risk attack . that would be a travesty of injustice.

Iran has no nuclear weapons program. This is the conclusion of Mohammed el-Baradei the respected chief of the IAEA. The agency has conducted a thorough and nearly-continuous investigation on all suspected sites for the last two years and has come up with the very same result every time; nothing.

If we can't trust the findings of these comprehensive investigations by nuclear experts than the agency should be shut down and the NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty) should be abandoned. It is just that simple. If we keep the NPT then clearly we need to ensure that ALL countries sign it .

Now Israel must have security and deserves to live in peace I will be the first to say that. But Israel has built the bomb behind the worlds backs and then has refused to sign the NPT. Iran has not broken any laws so far at all . They are following the NPT to the letter. so in my view Israel needs to come on par with those that have signed.If my neighbor who is always angry with me had a gun . trust me I would want a gun too .

Of course Israel cant give up such a defence until it feels safe but it will never feel safe whilst it has such weapons. So in tandem with its needs for security Israel MUST sign the NPT and agree to a long term aim of giving up the bomb. Then countries like Iran can not rightly claim double standards and hypocrisy (which they can now)

The world should be even handed in its condemnation of such weapons . That means that Pakistan and India should be under the worlds spotlight right now for their crimes of building the bomb and certainly the US should not be signing major weapon deals with them as if they good little countries that have done no wrong.

I understand Iran's point of view . it feels like its being picked on when nobody stopped Israel,India and Pakistan from gaining the bomb but it has signed the NPT and followed the additional voluntary protocol. others haven't even signed the basic NPT and actually do have the bomb are almost rewarded for their sneaky ways.

I watched the Israeli foreign minister on the BBC a few months back and I was shocked to hear him state quite clearly that Israel would not allow Iran to have peaceful nuclear power. Such a right is why Iran signed the NPT and every other country on earth accepts Iran's right to peaceful nuclear power. That can not be accepted . the will of the United nations and the wording of the NPT must be applied.

So Iran must be allowed to create peaceful nuclear energy as President bush reiterated again the other day.

in conclusion we have till 2012 (al tleast) so we need to keep Iran at the table and we need to bring into the discussion those other countries that have brought such evil weapons to the arsenal.

The Idea behind the NPT is to remove such weapons from the planet all together . That can only be done by stopping new countries from building them and just as important by removing them from countries that have got them . especially countries that are not party to the NPT.

sorry if you just wanted a simple (a) or (b) answer for I don't do such things . this answer itself is highly simplistic compared to how much I would need to say and (a) and (b) usually turn out to be loaded questions.

But if you have only read the first and last line of this then the answer you got was a (b) with all of the above (and more) taken into account.

thanks for your question . In fact I have answered it many times and the answers are all over this blog but I accept the answer was not in this single article so I have helped you on your way to understanding my opinion on this subject but much more detail can be found by reading the other 150 articles I have put on this site about Iran and obviously the subsequent comments.

February 06, 2006 7:11 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not as sanguine as you are about Iran's peaceful motives. Do you have a special connection to Iran that bolsters your confidence about what they are up to?

Far from what you say, el-Baradei and his organization have not concluded that Iran has no nuclear weapons program. To the contrary, as the New York Times notes today: "Dr. ElBaradei, whom the Bush administration tried to oust from his job only a year ago, circulated a report that pointed to links between Iran's ostensibly civilian nuclear program and its military. The report characterized designs that inspectors had found in Iran, supplied by Dr. Khan's network, as clearly "related to the fabrication of nuclear weapon components." Those designs sketched out how to perfect uranium spheres, a shape that can be imploded to set off a nuclear explosion." The full article is well worth reading.

Iran's efforts to secretly obtain weapons-related designs from the Khan network out of Pakistan are well documented.

Your comment that "Iran does not start wars with anyone even when it has had the chance to attack Israel directly it never has" may be technically true, but the word "directly" is your hedge. They sponsor all kinds of terrorist groups, and so attack Israel indirectly. Also, who's to say whether they would attack Israel if they thought they had a chance to win the resulting war? As far as I'm concerned, all you've really proved is that they aren't suicidal.

February 06, 2006 8:25 am  
Blogger _H_ said...

I have no connection to Iran what so ever in answer to your first question. I am white , english and of no religion what so ever . I have been to the middle east (but not Iran)...

Your article from the NYT I have read but it makes no claim that Iran is actually building a bomb at all , Of course they have the know how . there are very few countries on the planet that do not know 'how' to make a bomb. what I said is that the IAEA have seen no evidence that Iran 'IS' building a bomb. there is a key difference between the two concepts

If you want to know how Iran learnt the know how to build a bomb then try looking at This . But my advice would be to not read media reports at all on the subject as none of the reporters have inspected the country either , better to go the the web site of the IAEA itself and read their words for yourself . there is not one claim they have made ever that Iran is building a bomb.

I accept that Iran has connections to Terrorism but so does the US . for one example of many it harbours the terrorist Luis Posada Carriles responsible for putting a bomb on a passenger plane and killing all 70 odd civilians on board including women and children . He is wanted for his crimes but the US refuses to hand him over due to him working for the CIA at the time of the terrorist act (He may well of done it for them , who knows)

Iran's support of terrorist acts are disgusting but the are tiny compared to the 500 million the CIA spends every year in support of similar activities and we are not asking the US to give up their bombs are we ?

and not liking hypocrisy it would be wrong to condemn Irans support of terrorism and not condemn the US for the same actions . so I clearly state both is equally wrong and neither has the moral authority to call the other on it.

My aim was not to prove anything , quite the opposite , it was to show that nothing has been proven and such talk of sanctions and attacking a country without a single piece of evidence (as so many of the uninformed are doing) would be barbaric,sickening and wrong.

So we should let the IAEA do its job and if they need the support of nation states then they will ask for it. the world should not play politics with the IAEA that was my point in this article and my answer to you..

February 06, 2006 8:47 am  
Blogger Hype said...

good post H.. that is my take on it too.

the media and government officials are asking for Iran's head over here.

how dare they, seems to be the sentiment.

those evil muslims..

and that is not right.. it is sickening..


February 06, 2006 3:25 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i'm sorry for there idea
i am from iran
our countery isnt in terror but usa and Eurep want take our Oil .
they are resume it in every 30 years . before this in 30 years ago and in iraq attack the all countries help saddam in iran war. in 60 years ago and after running away shah from iran usa and british help to shah to back to iran . (poit it to cia document)
and now the Israel have many neclear bomb and same but usa and Eurep is relax by them
i am iranian
and we are never remission you in history!

February 06, 2006 9:19 pm  
Blogger Hype said...

some of us haven't forgotten the history..

i have seen the cia documents. they are quite the read.

i hope Iran can live in peace as i would hope the US could live in peace.


February 06, 2006 9:24 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone who thinks there's no evidence for Iran's WMD program needs to do some proper research. They could start with reading Kenneth Timmerman's "Countdown To Crisis", which details Iran's 20+ year program to develop nuclear weapons.

Iran has a "cheat and retreat" tactic that they have used very well to deal with IAEA inspections. This allows them a 2 steps forward, 1 step backwards approach.

People will be shocked at inaction by US intelligence over the last 20 years but particularly the massive roles played by China, Russia, Germany and France to help Iran's nuclear weapons program.

February 06, 2006 10:55 pm  
Blogger _H_ said...

Have you read the link above Anonymous ? The CIA gave the Iranians access to the bomb.

The track record of the western Intelligence agencies is to quote Hans Blix "100 percent wrong" and after the slaughter of so many innocents in Iraq if the US administration has even an ounce of moral conscience left it will back off and let the IAEA do its job.

I have said many times and I will say it to you and Mr Timmerman (as well as many others that write on the subject)

If you think you have any information that prooves Iran is trying to build a bomb then the first thing to do is not to let us know , or write a book or a newspaper article .... the first thing to do is inform the IAEA of the facts you have.

They have perfomed 1400 days of go anywhere see anything , whenever they like inspections and have not come to any such conclusions

Nobody doubts Iran has the 'knowledge' to build a bomb but there is no real evidence that Iran 'IS' trying to build a bomb at all and I will always take the word of the real on the ground experts who assess this on behalf of the world every single day . then someone who wrote a book for personal profit.

If 'any' of the facts in Mr Timmermans book are true then I can assure you the IAEA will already be aware of it.

February 06, 2006 11:05 pm  
Blogger Javier Marti said...

I enjoyed your blog. It is good to have one source where you gather all these news
ALthough I don`t like to get into politics too much, there are 2 articles in my blog you may be interested in reading:
BEst regards

February 08, 2006 8:08 pm  

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